Friday, September 22, 2006

We're Number Two, We Try Harder

The Commercial Appeal is reporting we are number two in crime, as reported by the FBI. Is that a surprise? The real surprise is that we aren't number one! The Morgan-Quitno report will be out at the end of the year and I think we'll either be number two or one this time. Last year they had us at third, and second the year before. New Orleans leap frogged us due to Katrina. They will probably slide back down to fifth this year.

We need to get those mentors out there mentoring criminals, if we really want to become number one!

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

John you ought to know better than to hang your hat on Morgan Quitno - even the FBI discourages comparisons of cities based on crime stats and Morgan Quitno is in the business of selling books for profit.

John Harvey said...

John you ought to know better than to hang your hat on Morgan Quitno - even the FBI discourages comparisons of cities based on crime stats and Morgan Quitno is in the business of selling books for profit.

It's kinda funny that the FBI's statistics parallel Morgan-Quitno's statistics, isn't it? What you will see is all the cities and metro areas who show up on the "worst" list will poo poo the results, while those who show up on the "best" list will talk about the statistics.

Take a breath and step back from the data though. Are you saying you don't think Memphis is one of the most dangerous metro areas in the country? It is by almost any measurement you want to use, except that from the Visitors and Conventions Bureau.

Why are we so dangerous? Could it have something to do with the way we reinforce criminal behavior? I think so, and I think that responsiblity should be shared equally by the judges, AG, Sheriff, Police, and both mayors.

New York City turned their crime problem upside down. They did it because the mayor was committed to fixing a broken system. It can be done here too, but people have to get serious about the problem. If something isn't done soon, there will only be criminals left, because the rest of us will have already gone. (I live in a relatively crime free area of the county known as Bolton - for just that reason).

It makes no sense to live in the cesspool, when you can drive a few more miles and you and your family will be relatively safe. As they say, "you pays your money, you takes your chances." To those who have decided to remain in Memphis, I say good luck, and go get that gun as soon as possible. Learn all about how to shoot it, maintain it and about the liabilities that come with it, then keep it with you at all times.

Anonymous said...

I don't live in a cesspool. I have lived in Midtown for over 30 years and the only place I will be moving is to the mountains when I retire. Not because of anything that is going on in Memphis but because that is where I want to spend my senior years. Yes, people are mmoving out of Memphis but they are also moving in to Memphis - think all those expensive condos downtown and large McMansions in East Memphis and Midtown are being sold to thugs? Um. No. You have a good life in Bolton and that is great but don't denigrate all of Memphis - and yes, I know you lived in Midtown at one point and had problems there but you just have to pay attention to know that the city limits do not limit criminal activity. Why do you think Bartlett is beefing up its police force - because they need to write more tickets??

Yes. There is crime in Memphis and always will be. And yes we can all do more including changing attitudes from negative (cesspool) to positive.

Here is an interesting tidpit for you:

A look at crime statistics back to 1999 indicates that despite media hysteria, the most murders in a year took place five years ago. The 136 murders in 2005 followed an unusually low number of murders – 105 - in 2004. Yet, the 2004 number was a clear aberration. That year’s number was 20 percent lower than the previous low since 2000.

John Harvey said...

I know you lived in Midtown at one point and had problems there but you just have to pay attention to know that the city limits do not limit criminal activity. Why do you think Bartlett is beefing up its police force - because they need to write more tickets??

I'm glad you are so positive about Memphis, but I'm afraid I'm not. If I thought things were being done to stop the crime, lower the taxes, enhance the schools, then I'd be singing it's praises too.

The bottom line issue is this - picking where you live is an investment strategy. You should make that decision based on the law of probabilities. Is it more likely that you or your family will be attacked, burgled, robbed, raped, etc if you live IN Memphis, or outside of Memphis. I think the results are already in. Most people appear to be trying to get out. I am thinking Fayette county myself though, like you, I would love to live in the Rocky Mountains.

I call Memphis a cesspool because maybe I've seen a seedier side than you. I remember the day when I thought it was a nice place to live. It could be that way again, if changes were made. I'm not holding my breath on this one though.

Enjoy yourself living in the middle of town where you are close to everything, including crime. But, most of all, keep a safe lookout and don't forget to batten the hatches before turning in at night!(Sorry I couldn't resist)

Anonymous said...

Hey, just chiming in here. Also a midtowner. Been here for 14 years. I'm not saying we don't have a problem and it IS something that needs to be turned around.

But I also have to somewhat agree with the poster above about the attitude towards actually LIVING in Memphis (Midtown, East, Poplar/Highland, etc.). Picking where you live is only PARTLY an investment strategy. There are MANY, MANY other reasons that go into making the decision. I cannot and don't want to argue aesthetics, but the immediate suburban areas (Cordova, Bartlett, Wolfchase area, etc.) of Memphis are not only a city planning travesties, they are not going to last as decent places to hold land value or living appeal. I watched this happen in Atlanta when I lived there. You've seen it happen here in Hickory Hill, Raleigh and others. Granted, Atlanta had the Olypicis in 96, and well, I doubt we'll ever have the Olympics..... That helped Midtown Atlanta out tremendously. But Memphis is very similar to Atlanta in many ways, distribution being the most important. I see the same migration pattern I saw there. We're starting to see some good things happen here in Midtown. Property values are still high, holding, and probably going to get better once the housing slump is over -- even though we're less affected by that in Memphis than elsewhere.

But my point is just to say that while I understand your sentiment, it's not really an effective argument for living one place or another. 'Picking where you live is an investment strategy' is only part of the game. The aesthetics of where you live should be considered, among many other factors.

Statistics don't necessarily portray what their authors are trying to describe. Do you think polls are equivalent of the real attitudes of the people being polled? Nope, they're statistics. They define a situation in the abstract which can be very different from the actual system that created the statistics in the first place. That's because there's 'perception'.

Anyway, just throwing out a few thoughts. I'll be in Midtown for the duration, and yes, my neighborhood is a good one. And we're going to turn the crime thing around in the rest of it. It doesn't help that people give up and skip out occasionally. But we will do it ourselves. And THAT is why (if you're basing where you live on financial strategy) you'll be able to look at Midtown (or rather INtown Memphis) again in about 7 years or so, and find that you may want to invest again. You see it in East Memphis now. Coming from a farming family in the Delta, it's an old truth that when there is no more land to be had (developed), yours suddenly becomes very valuable.